Will “Inflation” be said 50+ times at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 50+ times at the FOMC press conference on 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (46%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (50+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Inflation 50+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=13
- Settled
- 6/13 (46%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
19 counted (7 in prepared remarks, 12 in Q&A); 13 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. We recognize that inflation has been running well ahead of the Fed’s long-stated inflation goal of…
…at 2.2 percent this year, 2.3 percent next year, and total PCE inflation runs at 3.6 percent this year, 2.3 percent next year. The unemployment…
Counts: named speaker only
33 counted (6 in prepared remarks, 27 in Q&A); 17 by speakers the rule does not count.
…remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase…
…hiring, and nominal wage growth, generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has moved up recently and is elevated relative to our 2 percent…
Counts: named speaker only
50 counted (11 in prepared remarks, 39 in Q&A); 22 by speakers the rule does not count.
…low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Inflation 50+ times |  Polymarket | No | 19 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | No | 33 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 50 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | No | 32 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 62 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | No | 49 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 50 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 57 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Inflation 50+ | Polymarket | No | 48 |
| May 7, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | No | 37 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 68 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | No | 48 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Inflation 50+ times |  Kalshi | No | 48 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Inflation 50+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 101 |
Questions
- How often is “Inflation 50+ times” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Inflation” was said 50+ times at the FOMC press conference on 6 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (46%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Inflation 50+ times” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Inflation 50+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/inflation-50plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=inflation%20%2850%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP