Will “Good Afternoon” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Good Afternoon” was said at the FOMC press conference on 14 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (78%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 9¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Good Afternoon
- Probability
- 55% · n=18
- Settled
- 14/18 (78%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 30 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Good Afternoon |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Good Afternoon |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Good afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Good afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Good afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Good afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Good afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| May 8, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 7, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Good Afternoon | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Good Afternoon | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Good Afternoon” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Good Afternoon” was said at the FOMC press conference on 14 of 18 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (78%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Good Afternoon” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Good Afternoon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/good-afternoon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=good%20afternoon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP