Will “Crypto / Bitcoin” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Crypto / Bitcoin” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (18%), most recently on Jan 29, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 17% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), 3 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 9 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 12¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Crypto / Bitcoin
- Probability
- 17% · n=11
- Settled
- 2/11 (18%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 3 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | Crypto / Bitcoin |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 7, 2025 | Crypto / Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Crypto/Bitcoin | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Crypto/Bitcoin | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Crypto/Bitcoin |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Crypto/Bitcoin | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often is “Crypto / Bitcoin” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Crypto / Bitcoin” was said at the FOMC press conference on 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2024 (18%), most recently on Jan 29, 2025.
- What is the probability “Crypto / Bitcoin” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 17%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Crypto / Bitcoin’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/bitcoin-or-crypto (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=bitcoin%20%2F%20crypto · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP