Will “Shock” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 23, 2026, “Shock” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 85% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 6.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Shock
- Probability
- 85% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…So we removed a dose of accommodation. Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the U.S.…
…impact do you expect higher rates to have at this juncture if the bulk of what is keeping inflation elevated is stemming from supply shocks?
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: role: fed chair
10 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 7 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…the banking system. The economy is showing impressive resilience. Even with recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept…
…the past really passed? Second, my colleagues and I considered the economic shocks of recent years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts,…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. That paragraph…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Shock” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, “Shock” was said at the FOMC press conference on 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Shock” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 85%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Shock’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/shock (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=shock · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP