Will “Yield Curve” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Yield Curve” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 8% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 9 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Yield Curve
- Probability
- 8% · n=9
- Settled
- 0/9 (0%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…than when you started cutting back in September of 2024, and the yield curve basically has been steepening. Why do you think that continuing to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Yield Curve |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Yield Curve | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 8, 2025 | Yield curve | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Yield curve | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “Yield Curve” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Yield Curve” was not said at the FOMC press conference on any of the 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025.
- What is the probability “Yield Curve” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 8%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Yield Curve’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/yield-curve (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=yield%20curve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP