Will “Uncertainty” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 87% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 8.
- Last 10
- 7/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 78¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Uncertainty
- Probability
- 87% · n=7
- Settled
- 7/7 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…short while ago, economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity…
…removed a dose of accommodation. Consider the geopolitical landscape of shocks and uncertainty, and you begin to appreciate the resilience of the U.S. economy. Given…
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…of forecasting, a choice we consider especially prudent at these uncertain times. Uncertainty, however, does not mean a lack of clarity. For some households, businesses,…
Jonnelle Marte with Bloomberg. Following up on that, there was more uncertainty in the markets about what the Fed would do at this meeting. To…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Uncertainty |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Uncertainty | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
Questions
- How often is “Uncertainty” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Uncertainty” was said at the FOMC press conference on 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Uncertainty” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 87%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Uncertainty’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/uncertainty (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=uncertainty · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP