Will “Expectation” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Expectation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 85% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 8.
- Last 10
- 8/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 8 times
- Counts
- role: fed chair
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Expectation
- Probability
- 85% · n=8
- Settled
- 8/8 (100%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
3 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A); 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…of tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil…
…that we will produce 2 percent inflation. If you look at longer-run expectations, markets believe that—there’s no sense in which our credibility in the markets…
Counts: role: fed chair
11 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 8 in Q&A); 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the…
…bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all…
Counts: role: fed chair
10 counted (3 in prepared remarks, 7 in Q&A); 3 by speakers the rule does not count.
…appears to be continuing in the services sector. Nearterm measures of inflation expectations have declined from last year’s peaks, as reflected in both market- and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Expectation |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | 11 |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| May 8, 2025 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Expectation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often is “Expectation” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Expectation” was said at the FOMC press conference on 8 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 17, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability “Expectation” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 85%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Expectation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/expectation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=expectation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP