Will “Oil” be said at the next FOMC press conference?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (80%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 press conferences we have transcripts for (Oct 29, 2025 – Sep 16, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, role: fed chair) in 5.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- role: fed chair
- Market
- 57¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
FOMC press conference
Oil
- Probability
- 67% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 8 press conferences
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: role: fed chair
Counts: role: fed chair
1 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 1 in Q&A).
…good question, Richard. We cannot affect any individual price, whether it be oil prices, whether it be foodstuffs at the grocery store. But what we…
Counts: role: fed chair
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…cannot have a very significant effect on particular prices. The price of oil in the markets today or even the price of a dozen eggs,…
Counts: role: fed chair
7 counted (2 in prepared remarks, 5 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…12 months ending in March, boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding…
…tariffs on prices in the goods sector. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the substantial rise in oil prices.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often is “Oil” said at the FOMC press conference?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Oil” was said at the FOMC press conference on 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (80%), most recently on Sep 16, 2026.
- What is the probability “Oil” is said at the FOMC press conference next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: role: fed chair.
Cite parrot.markets, “FOMC press conference: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/fomc-press-conference/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=fomc-press-conference&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP