Will JD Vance say “Israel”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Israel” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 30, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Israel
- Probability
- 33% · n=8
- Settled
- 2/8 (25%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the president's impeachment, and many accuse him of trying to jeopardize US Israel relations. What do you say to those who are uneasy with your…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…of course region -- countries don't give up the right of self-defense. Israel doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or…
…these days. The cities are begging for help from the US and Israel, naming streets in the city after President Trump. It seems there is…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…this is a peace plan that has not just been accepted by Israel, but it has been applauded by Muslim and Arab countries around the…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Israel”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Israel” at 2 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 30, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Israel” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Israel’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/israel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=israel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP