Will JD Vance say “Hormuz”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Hormuz” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (40%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=15, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

47%from settlement history only · n=15counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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JD Vance

Hormuz

Probability
47% · n=15
Settled
6/15 (40%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 14:54In transcript

…through. We got about 15 million barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, despite the fact that the Iranians continue to ship --…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 0:25In transcript

…Last night, 12.5 million barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz; that is a high since the beginning of the conflict. Oil prices…

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 15 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 13, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Aug 8, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Aug 5, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026HormuzKalshiYes7
Jun 16, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Jun 14, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
May 28, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo–
May 19, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Apr 7, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026HormuzKalshiYes–
Mar 18, 2026HormuzPolymarketNo–
Mar 13, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026HormuzKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Hormuz” at 6 of 15 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (40%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Hormuz” next time?
47%, from settlement history (n=15). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP