JD Vance: Rally, Oct 5, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska?
Markets
27 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 78%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 72%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 68%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 68%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 59%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Drill / Drilling | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 30%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | 77%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 59%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 57%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 57%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 56%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 53%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Korea / Korean | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pipeline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 44%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 39%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 38%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 36%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 27%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 22%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 17%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP