Will JD Vance say “China / Chinese”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “China / Chinese” at 11 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (42%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 29% (n=26, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 23¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
China / Chinese
- Probability
- 29% · n=26
- Settled
- 11/26 (42%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Democrats take control of Congress, we will lose the AI race to China, but we'll also lose a lot else. You will see higher energy…
A lot of it has come from mainland China. We're certainly aware of that, but here's what I'll say. First of all, we've made incredible…
Can I ask, what about China, if I could? China has not made one soybean purchase this year in the United States. I talked to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 19, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 17, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 15, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 9, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 5, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 30, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 21, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 9, 2026 | China / Chinese |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 9, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 3, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 24, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 21, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 13, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 29, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 28, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 18, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 16, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | China / Chinese | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “China / Chinese”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “China / Chinese” at 11 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 14, 2026 (42%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “China / Chinese” next time?
- 29%, from settlement history (n=26). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘China / Chinese’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/china-or-chinese (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=china%20%2F%20chinese · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP