Will JD Vance say “Affordable / Affordability”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Affordable / Affordability” at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (60%), most recently on Feb 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no yes no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 67¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Affordable / Affordability
- Probability
- 54% · n=10
- Settled
- 6/10 (60%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…said. If you think that inflation is a problem, if you think affordability is a problem, number one, we're doing everything we can to bring…
…come later. During the Biden administration, Democrats twice voted to expand these Affordable Care Act tax credits, but those were supposed to be temporary and…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Affordable / Affordability | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Affordable / Affordability”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Affordable / Affordability” at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 14, 2025 (60%), most recently on Feb 17, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Affordable / Affordability” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Affordable / Affordability’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/affordability-or-affordable (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=affordability%20%2F%20affordable · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP