Will JD Vance say “Somali / Somalia / Somalian”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Somali / Somalia / Somalian” at 12 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

39%from settlement history only · n=24counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=somali%20%2F%20somalia%20%2F%20somalian

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Somali / Somalia / Somalian

Probability
39% · n=24
Settled
12/24 (50%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 3:54In transcript

…preschool. Those programs should go to American citizens, not be defrauded by Somali immigrants and others making it hard for you to get the access…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 27 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Sep 14, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026Somalia / Somalian / SomaliKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026Somalia / Somalian / SomaliKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jun 4, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 29, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 26, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
May 19, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
May 16, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
May 13, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
May 5, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Apr 30, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 14, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Mar 18, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Feb 26, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–
Jan 9, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes2
Jan 8, 2026Somali / Somalia / SomalianKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Somali / Somalia / Somalian”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Somali / Somalia / Somalian” at 12 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 8, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Somali / Somalia / Somalian” next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Somali / Somalia / Somalian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/somali-or-somalia-or-somalian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=somali%20%2F%20somalia%20%2F%20somalian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP