JD Vance: Remarks, Oct 20, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his announcement?
Markets
17 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 75%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 57%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 54%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 54%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 69%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 59%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 58%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 52%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 43%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 41%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 36%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 35%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 24%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 23%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 19%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=61 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:36 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT20 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP