Will JD Vance say “China”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “China” at 7 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 28, 2025 (44%), most recently on May 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 21¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
China
- Probability
- 44% · n=16
- Settled
- 7/16 (44%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Democrats take control of Congress, we will lose the AI race to China, but we'll also lose a lot else. You will see higher energy…
A lot of it has come from mainland China. We're certainly aware of that, but here's what I'll say. First of all, we've made incredible…
Can I ask, what about China, if I could? China has not made one soybean purchase this year in the United States. I talked to…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 17 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | China |  Polymarket | No |
| May 5, 2026 | China | Polymarket | Yes |
| Feb 27, 2026 | China |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 18, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 23, 2026 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 22, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 17, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 27, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 21, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 15, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 14, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 30, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | China | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | China | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 17, 2025 | China | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 28, 2025 | China | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “China”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “China” at 7 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 28, 2025 (44%), most recently on May 5, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “China” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP