Will JD Vance say “Marco / Rubio”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Marco / Rubio” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (43%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 press briefings we have transcripts for (Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Marco / Rubio
- Probability
- 50% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 5 press briefings
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the people of Venezuela. But also, thanks to the deal struck by Marco and Pete Hegseth and others in the administration, it actually sets us…
…that we're going to have to manage through the diplomatic process. Secretary Rubio has been sort of the person on point. It's -- it's actually…
…guy here, we'll give him (inaudible). Sorry, I can't get to everybody. Marco's right, this really is chaos. This is crazy. You guys got to…
Well, first of all, Secretary Rubio I believe is meeting with the leaders of Denmark and Greenland next week, I want to say it is,…
…Envoy Witkoff, the Vice President, the President of the United States, Secretary Rubio, and the President's entire national security team. We are very proud of…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Marco / Rubio |  Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 16, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Marco / Rubio | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Marco / Rubio”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Marco / Rubio” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (43%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Marco / Rubio” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Marco / Rubio’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/marco-or-rubio (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=marco%20%2F%20rubio · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP