Will JD Vance say “Ass”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Ass” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Sep 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

37%from settlement history only · n=13counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ass

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Ass

Probability
37% · n=13
Settled
5/13 (38%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 21, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Sep 18, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Sep 9, 2026AssPolymarketYes
Aug 31, 2026AssPolymarketYes
Aug 24, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Aug 21, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Jul 8, 2026AssPolymarketYes
May 28, 2026AssPolymarketYes
Mar 18, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Mar 13, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Feb 26, 2026AssPolymarketNo
Jan 22, 2026AssPolymarketYes
Aug 13, 2025AssPolymarketNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Ass”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Ass” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 13, 2025 (38%), most recently on Sep 9, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Ass” next time?
37%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Ass’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ass (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ass · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP