Will JD Vance say “ID / Identification”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “ID / Identification” at 3 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (15%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=20, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
ID / Identification
- Probability
- 23% · n=20
- Settled
- 3/20 (15%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…American people love the SAVE America Act because they believe in voter ID? But how many of those same senators don't want to vote for…
Every settled listing
newest first · 23 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | ID / Identification |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 20, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 19, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 30, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 21, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2026 | ID / Identification |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 18, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 14, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 9, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 8, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 29, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 18, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 30, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 13, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 9, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 27, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ID / Identification | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “ID / Identification”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “ID / Identification” at 3 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (15%), most recently on Sep 21, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “ID / Identification” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=20). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘ID / Identification’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/id-or-identification (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=id%20%2F%20identification · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP