Will JD Vance say “Terrorist / Terrorism”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Terrorist / Terrorism” at 16 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (44%), most recently on Sep 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=36, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.

44%from settlement history only · n=36counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no yes yes no no no
Streak
not said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Terrorist / Terrorism

Probability
44% · n=36
Settled
16/36 (44%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 4 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 23:58In transcript

…work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 7:29In transcript

…we want to see is Iran not funding regional instability, funding regional terrorism, and of course trying to rebuild their nuclear weapons program. That's the…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 3:19In transcript

…I don't want them to inherit a world where 20 additional regimes, half of them very dangerous and very sympathetic to terrorists have nuclear weapons.

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 11:12In transcript

…law and in some cases actually to engage in acts of domestic terrorism against our law enforcement officers. When you talk about different plans, different…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 40 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Sep 14, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Sep 3, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Aug 13, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes4
Jun 17, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jun 17, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jun 16, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jun 16, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jun 14, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jun 8, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Jun 4, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 29, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 26, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
May 19, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
May 18, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
May 16, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
May 15, 2026Terrorism / TerroristKalshiNo–
May 13, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
May 5, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Apr 30, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 29, 2026Terrorism / TerroristPolymarketNo–
Apr 29, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Apr 13, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Apr 7, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Mar 18, 2026Terrorism / TerroristKalshiYes–
Mar 13, 2026Terrorism / TerroristPolymarketNo–
Mar 9, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Jan 8, 2026Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiYes–
Sep 21, 2025Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Terrorist / Terrorism”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Terrorist / Terrorism” at 16 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (44%), most recently on Sep 3, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Terrorist / Terrorism” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=36). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Terrorist / Terrorism’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/terrorism-or-terrorist (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=terrorism%20%2F%20terrorist · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP