Will JD Vance say “Steel”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Steel” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2026 (57%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 36¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Steel
- Probability
- 52% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Steel”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Steel” at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2026 (57%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Steel” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Steel’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/steel (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=steel · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP