Will JD Vance say “Political Violence”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Political Violence” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (43%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Political Violence
- Probability
- 44% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…politics, however you define bad politics. Number two, and way more importantly, political violence, wherever it comes from, is unacceptable in the United States of…
…they have, for the first time maybe in American history, an administration that is not going to tolerate political violence of any kind from anywhere.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Political Violence |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Political Violence |  Polymarket | No |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Political violence | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Political violence | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Political Violence”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Political Violence” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 15, 2025 (43%), most recently on Apr 29, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Political Violence” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Political Violence’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/political-violence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=political%20violence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP