Will JD Vance say “Big Beautiful Bill”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Big Beautiful Bill” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (14%), most recently on Jul 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Big Beautiful Bill
- Probability
- 28% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Polymarket | No |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Big Beautiful Bill | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Big Beautiful Bill”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Big Beautiful Bill” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (14%), most recently on Jul 16, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Big Beautiful Bill” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/big-beautiful-bill (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=big%20beautiful%20bill · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP