Will JD Vance say “Ceasefire”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Ceasefire” at 2 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (17%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

23%from settlement history only · n=12counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 6 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Ceasefire

Probability
23% · n=12
Settled
2/12 (17%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 10:47In transcript

…their end of the deal. Now, as you guys know, sometimes these ceasefires are a little messy. The president of United States said this a…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 38:40In transcript

…all. And it's one of the things that sometimes happens. Unfortunately, these ceasefires, they're not always perfect. We've seen that in Gaza. We've seen that…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 13 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 20, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 17, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Sep 3, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes2
Jun 16, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Jun 14, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026CeasefireKalshiNo–
Jun 4, 2026CeasefireKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 19, 2026CeasefireKalshiYes–
Mar 14, 2025CeasefireKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Ceasefire” at 2 of 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (17%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Ceasefire” next time?
23%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP