Will JD Vance say “Investment / Invested”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Investment / Invested” at 6 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (75%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 62% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 6/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Investment / Invested
- Probability
- 62% · n=8
- Settled
- 6/8 (75%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…on tips, no taxes on overtime. We've seen $19 trillion of new investment come into the country, but most of that is building new factories…
…record wage growth, in order to induce trillions of dollars of new investment into our country, that's because he cares about that stuff. What he…
…working on matters that involve Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, three countries that combined have given him more than $2.5 billion for his investment firm?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Investment / Invested |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 28, 2026 | Invested / Investment | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | Yes |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Investment / Invested | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Investment / Invested”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Investment / Invested” at 6 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (75%), most recently on Aug 24, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Investment / Invested” next time?
- 62%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Investment / Invested’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/invested-or-investment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=invested%20%2F%20investment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP