JD Vance: Rally, Sep 21, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina?
Markets
40 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 68%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 55%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 55%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 55%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 51%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 42%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Cooper | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 36%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 33%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 28%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | 22%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 17%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 12%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| God 3+ times | No | 64%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 54%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 47%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 40%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 40%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | 39%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| CNN | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 35%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Usha | No | 32%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Food Stamp / SNAP | No | 31%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 24%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 22%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 20%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP