Will JD Vance say “Peace”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Peace” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (29%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Peace
- Probability
- 35% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…US manufacturing? And does that make ideas like the Foundry School, which you were talking about at the Institute of Peace, that much more important?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…of things off the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people.…
…in the Caribbean region. I actually think this is really good for peace in the Caribbean because, when you take away a major source of…
[inaudible 00:25:47] had any direct response from Hamas from the peace proposal that was laid out? The President said he would give three or four…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Peace”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Peace” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (29%), most recently on Jan 23, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Peace” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Peace’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/peace (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=peace · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP