Will JD Vance say “Nuclear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Nuclear” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (62%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. No keynotes among them yet.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 47¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Nuclear
- Probability
- 61% · n=16
- Settled
- 10/16 (62%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we doing this. Number one, it's so that Iran never has a nuclear weapon. And number two, what we're doing right now is protecting commercial…
…comply with the rest of the deal or not. Number one, their nuclear program has been completely destroyed. Their capacity for enrichment, the facilities at…
…United States has said is number one, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And I think it's important for the American people and all…
…States about what we need to see when it comes to their nuclear program. I'll let the president speak to what we're going to do…
Every settled listing
newest first · 21 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nuclear |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | 22 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Nuclear |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 28, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 16, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 14, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Nuclear | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Nuclear | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Nuclear”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Nuclear” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (62%), most recently on Aug 13, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Nuclear” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Nuclear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/nuclear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=nuclear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP