Will JD Vance say “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (29%), most recently on Jun 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation
- Probability
- 31% · n=7
- Settled
- 2/7 (29%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 5 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…They've got to stop. It's that simple. And to your point about negotiations, the president's been very clear, we're not talking to them and we're…
…into. There are going to be any number of opinions about the negotiation, about where it's ultimately going to go. But I tend to think…
…job. And then finally, just to give an update on the Iran negotiation, the Iran situation. I just talked to the president very briefly before…
…ago, it's true today, is for them to actually have a real negotiation with the United States about what we need to see when it…
…the government. Let's fix America's problems, let's work together to solve them, but let's reopen the government before we have our negotiation about healthcare policy.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (29%), most recently on Jun 30, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation” next time?
- 31%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/negotiate-or-negotiated-or-negotiation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=negotiate%20%2F%20negotiated%20%2F%20negotiation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP