JD Vance: Rally, Oct 15, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan?
Markets
30 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 80%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 72%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 65%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 55%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 54%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 52%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Yes | 47%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Auto Worker / Autoworker | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 76%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | No | 71%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 64%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 63%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 63%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 56%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 54%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 49%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Electric Vehicle / EV | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 40%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ford / General Motors / GM | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | No | 39%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 33%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 33%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 33%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 32%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 32%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 15%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP