JD Vance: Interview, Oct 1, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity?
Markets
19 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 67%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 56%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 53%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 52%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 51%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 48%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 47%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 46%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 44%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 35%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 60%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 50%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 45%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 45%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 27%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 23%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 21%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 17%n=45 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT01B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP