Will JD Vance say “Border”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Border” at 11 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (52%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.

54%from settlement history only · n=21Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no yes yes no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
72¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Border

Probability
54% · n=21
Settled
11/21 (52%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 18:32In transcript

…because of it. We said, if you got control of the southern border, we would see a substantial reduction in the number of people who…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 22:21In transcript

…the president of the United States was elected to actually enforce the border for the first time in at least four years. So, here's the…

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 27:18In transcript

…and beaten, and in many cases, killed over our United States southern border. You also look at the inhumane treatment at the hands of some…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 22 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 19, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Oct 15, 2026BorderKalshiNo
Oct 9, 2026BorderPolymarketYes
Oct 9, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Aug 31, 2026BorderKalshiNo
Aug 24, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Aug 21, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026BorderKalshiNo
May 26, 2026BorderKalshiNo
May 16, 2026BorderKalshiNo
May 15, 2026BorderKalshiYes
May 13, 2026BorderKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026BorderKalshiNo
Mar 27, 2026BorderKalshiNo
Jan 23, 2026BorderKalshiYes
Dec 17, 2025BorderKalshiYes
Nov 21, 2025BorderKalshiYes
Oct 30, 2025BorderKalshiYes
Oct 19, 2025BorderKalshiNo
Sep 24, 2025BorderKalshiYes
Sep 17, 2025BorderKalshiNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Border”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Border” at 11 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (52%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Border” next time?
54%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Border’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/border (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=border · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP