Will JD Vance say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 3 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (18%), most recently on Nov 20, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 18% · n=17
- Settled
- 3/17 (18%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…him following up with action to say that, if you're going to shut down an American factory and put an American worker out of a…
…work of making it happen. What they have done instead is to shut down the government because we won't give billions of dollars to healthcare…
Every settled listing
newest first · 20 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 29, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 26, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| May 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| May 13, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Shutdown / Shut Down” at 3 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (18%), most recently on Nov 20, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 18%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP