Will JD Vance say “Israel / Israeli”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Israel / Israeli” at 7 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (19%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=37, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

24%from settlement history only · n=37counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 8 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Israel / Israeli

Probability
24% · n=37
Settled
7/37 (19%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

The PressreporterVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 20:55In transcript

…the president's impeachment, and many accuse him of trying to jeopardize US Israel relations. What do you say to those who are uneasy with your…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 6:52In transcript

…of course region -- countries don't give up the right of self-defense. Israel doesn't give up the right of self-defense if Hezbollah fires rockets or…

QreporterPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 34:10In transcript

…these days. The cities are begging for help from the US and Israel, naming streets in the city after President Trump. It seems there is…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 35:07In transcript

…this is a peace plan that has not just been accepted by Israel, but it has been applauded by Muslim and Arab countries around the…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 41 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Oct 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 21, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliPolymarketNo–
Sep 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Sep 3, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jul 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes20
Jun 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jun 15, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jun 8, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Jun 4, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 26, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 19, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 16, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
May 5, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Apr 30, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 29, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Apr 1, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Mar 18, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiYes–
Mar 13, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Mar 9, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026Israel / IsraeliKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Israel / Israeli” at 7 of 37 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (19%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
24%, from settlement history (n=37). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP