Will JD Vance say “Radical Left”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Radical Left” at 3 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (8%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=36, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 32¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Radical Left
- Probability
- 27% · n=36
- Settled
- 3/36 (8%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 36 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Radical Left |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Radical Left |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Radical Left | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Radical Left | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Radical Left | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 8, 2026 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Radical Left | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Radical Left | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Radical Left”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Radical Left” at 3 of 36 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (8%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Radical Left” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=36). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Radical Left’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/radical-left (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=radical%20left · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP