Will JD Vance say “Stock Market”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 19% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

19%from settlement history only · n=8counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 8 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=stock%20market

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Stock Market

Probability
19% · n=8
Settled
0/8 (0%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 8 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Aug 21, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo0
May 19, 2026Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Jan 23, 2026Stock MarketPolymarketNo–
Dec 17, 2025Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Nov 21, 2025Stock MarketKalshiNo–
Mar 14, 2025Stock marketKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Stock Market”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Stock Market” next time?
19%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP