Will JD Vance say “Autism / Autistic”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Autism / Autistic” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (14%), most recently on May 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Autism / Autistic
- Probability
- 27% · n=7
- Settled
- 1/7 (14%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Autism / Autistic |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 26, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2026 | Autism / Autistic | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Autism / Autistic |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Autism / Autistic”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Autism / Autistic” at 1 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 18, 2026 (14%), most recently on May 16, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Autism / Autistic” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Autism / Autistic’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/autism-or-autistic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=autism%20%2F%20autistic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP