Will JD Vance say “Minnesota / Minneapolis”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Minnesota / Minneapolis” at 10 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 26, 2026 (59%), most recently on May 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=17, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Minnesota / Minneapolis
- Probability
- 47% · n=17
- Settled
- 10/17 (59%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…number of the — the instances of wrongdoing that we've seen in Minneapolis. But we also want to expand this. We know that the fraud…
Every settled listing
newest first · 20 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 29, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 26, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 18, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 16, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 14, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 13, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 5, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Minnesota / Minneapolis | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Minnesota / Minneapolis”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Minnesota / Minneapolis” at 10 of 17 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 26, 2026 (59%), most recently on May 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Minnesota / Minneapolis” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=17). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Minnesota / Minneapolis’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/minneapolis-or-minnesota (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=minneapolis%20%2F%20minnesota · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP