Will JD Vance say “Iran / Iranian”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran / Iranian” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. No keynotes among them yet.

53%from settlement history only · n=16Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
54¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Iran / Iranian

Probability
53% · n=16
Settled
10/16 (62%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 4 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 13:52In transcript

…the reason gas prices are so high right now is because the Iranians are shooting at commercial shipping. Even, by the way, when they signed…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 0:18In transcript

…the bat. First of all, I think the president's peace plan in Iran is already bearing real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 2:10In transcript

…incredible job. And then finally, just to give an update on the Iran negotiation, the Iran situation. I just talked to the president very briefly…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 34:34In transcript

…rights for free association and to have their voices heard. Obviously, the Iranian regime has a lot of problems. And as the president of United…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 17 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
Oct 17, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
Aug 31, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
Aug 24, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
Aug 8, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 15, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 8, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Jun 4, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
May 28, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
May 26, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo
May 19, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
May 13, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes
Apr 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Iran / Iranian” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 29, 2026 (62%), most recently on Oct 17, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
53%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP