Will JD Vance say “Oil”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Oil” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (44%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.

42%from settlement history only · n=9Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
38¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Oil

Probability
42% · n=9
Settled
4/9 (44%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 1:44In transcript

…thing I want to talk about a little bit is the Venezuela oil deal, which I know some of you will have questions on, but…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 0:23In transcript

…real fruits for the American people. Last night, 12.5 million barrels of oil went through the Strait of Hormuz; that is a high since the…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 9 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Jul 1, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026OilKalshiYes17
May 19, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Apr 13, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Apr 7, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Mar 13, 2026OilKalshiYes–
Mar 9, 2026OilKalshiNo–
Mar 3, 2026OilKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Oil”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Oil” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026 (44%), most recently on Jun 18, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Oil” next time?
42%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Oil’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/oil (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=oil · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP