Will JD Vance say “Deal / Settle”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Deal / Settle” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (83%), most recently on Jun 16, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 64% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Deal / Settle
- Probability
- 64% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I want to talk about a little bit is the Venezuela oil deal, which I know some of you will have questions on, but I…
…will be true whether the Iranians comply with the rest of the deal or not. Number one, their nuclear program has been completely destroyed. Their…
…The Vice President of the United States is willing to cut a deal, so long as the Iranians are willing to meet us, again, on…
…our country wealthy and rich again? Cutting some of these unique, creative deals with companies around the world and here at home is just one…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | Deal / Settle |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 19, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Settle / Deal | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Deal / Settle | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Deal / Settle”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Deal / Settle” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 7, 2026 (83%), most recently on Jun 16, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Deal / Settle” next time?
- 64%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Deal / Settle’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/deal-or-settle (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=deal%20%2F%20settle · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP