JD Vance: Keynote, Sep 29, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during the MAHA Summit?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 65%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 58%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 55%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 54%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 52%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Obama / Obamacare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cancer | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 26%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 55%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 43%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Chronic Disease | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| GLP-1 / GLP 1 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obese / Obesity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pharma / Pharmaceutical | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TrumpRX | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 27%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26SEP29 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP