Will JD Vance say “Fentanyl”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fentanyl” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2024 (29%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

39%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only
Last 10
2/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Fentanyl

Probability
39% · n=7
Settled
2/7 (29%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 2 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 17:45In transcript

…going to make pre-commitments in a negotiation on any particular topic. On the question of fentanyl, a lot of people have died from fentanyl, absolutely.

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 35:31In transcript

…major source of illegal cartel revenue, which is the cocaine trade, the fentanyl trade, other sources of illicit revenue, you actually remove the power of…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 7 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Mar 18, 2026FentanylKalshiYes
Mar 13, 2026FentanylKalshiNo
Nov 15, 2025FentanylKalshiNo
Nov 14, 2025FentanylKalshiNo
Oct 30, 2024FentanylPolymarketNo
Oct 1, 2024FentanylPolymarketYes
Aug 28, 2024FentanylPolymarketNo

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Fentanyl”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fentanyl” at 2 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 28, 2024 (29%), most recently on Mar 18, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Fentanyl” next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fentanyl’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fentanyl (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fentanyl · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP