Will JD Vance say “Manufacture / Manufacturing”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Manufacture / Manufacturing” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2026 (27%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No keynotes among them yet.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no yes no no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 42¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Manufacture / Manufacturing
- Probability
- 34% · n=11
- Settled
- 3/11 (27%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that everything that we've done to protect American industry and rebuild American manufacturing, that stops as soon as the Democrats have real political power in…
…going to have factories opening. And we've seen both construction jobs and manufacturing, but also manufacturing jobs have great rebounds under the Trump administration and…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Manufacture / Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Manufacture / Manufacturing”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, JD Vance said “Manufacture / Manufacturing” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2026 (27%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Manufacture / Manufacturing” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Manufacture / Manufacturing’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/manufacture-or-manufacturing (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=manufacture%20%2F%20manufacturing · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP