Will JD Vance say “Manufacturing”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Manufacturing” at 14 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (61%), most recently on Sep 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 68¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Manufacturing
- Probability
- 56% · n=23
- Settled
- 14/23 (61%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that everything that we've done to protect American industry and rebuild American manufacturing, that stops as soon as the Democrats have real political power in…
…going to have factories opening. And we've seen both construction jobs and manufacturing, but also manufacturing jobs have great rebounds under the Trump administration and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 27 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2026 | Manufacturing |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Manufacturing |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 29, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| May 28, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| May 18, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 16, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| May 5, 2026 | Manufacturing | Polymarket | Yes |
| May 5, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Mar 13, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Manufacturing | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Manufacturing | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Manufacturing | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Manufacturing”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Manufacturing” at 14 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 27, 2024 (61%), most recently on Sep 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Manufacturing” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Manufacturing’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/manufacturing (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=manufacturing · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP