JD Vance: Interview, Oct 17, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 71%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 57%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 55%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 54%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 54%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 53%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 47%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 41%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 34%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 18%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | 57%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 49%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 43%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 29%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 25%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 21%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 18%n=50 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP