Will JD Vance say “Fertilizer”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, no Kalshi or Polymarket mention market on JD Vance saying “Fertilizer” has settled yet.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.
44%base rate for a new wordNext: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 48¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Fertilizer
- Probability
- 44% · prior
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Questions
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fertilizer’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fertilizer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fertilizer · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP