JD Vance: Rally, Oct 19, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina?
Markets
27 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 82%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 75%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 70%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 68%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 64%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 60%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 55%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 53%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 50%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 42%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 33%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 60%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 56%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 51%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 47%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 35%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 35%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 32%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 30%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 29%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 28%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 27%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 25%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 20%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 13%n=16 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP