JD Vance: Rally, Oct 9, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?
Markets
33 words · 20 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 79%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 74%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 70%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Yes | 68%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 62%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Family | Yes | 58%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 51%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 50%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 48%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | Yes | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Job 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Police | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vivek / Ramaswamy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 33%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 25%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 20%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | 70%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 53%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Working Class / Middle Class | No | 52%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hillary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 20+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Plague | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | No | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | No | 37%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 36%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 35%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 35%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 19%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | No | 15%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXVANCEMENTION-26OCT09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP