Will JD Vance say “Small Business”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Small Business” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (27%), most recently on Sep 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 24% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 6 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 31¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Small Business
- Probability
- 24% · n=11
- Settled
- 3/11 (27%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of dollars of fraudulent loans that were being handed out through the small business administration that we've identified and stopped. We've also started investigating some…
…administration has regarding a protracted government shutdown in terms of its impact on the US economy and also its impact on small businesses as well?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Small Business |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Small Business |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Small Business | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Small Business | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Small Business | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Small Business”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Small Business” at 3 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (27%), most recently on Sep 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Small Business” next time?
- 24%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Small Business’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/small-business (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=small%20business · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP